Adam Smith Blog

Books about how to see into the future

Marginalia

(One prediction I’m willing to make is that the US paperback edition of Messy is out on Wednesday. Buy buy buy! More about the book here.)

 

Walter Friedman has a fascinating history of economic forecasting in the early 20th century: Fortune Tellers (UK) (US). Well researched, full of interesting detail, and some of these guys (Irving Fisher, Roger Babson) were remarkable characters. For an insight into Fisher’s rival as an economist and investor, John Wasik’s Keynes’s Way To Wealth (UK) (US) is a fun light read.

Paul Goodwin’s Forewarned (UK) (US) is a broad survey of different forecasting approaches. I learned a few interesting things – but also felt Goodwin never quite reached a conclusion.

Philip Tetlock, with Dan Gardner wrote Superforecasting (UK) (US). Tetlock is one of the most interesting social scientists alive, and this research project into who does and does not make good forecasts is fascinating. (You might also look up Tetlock’s brilliant earlier, nerdier Expert Political Judgement and Gardner’s earlier polemic Future Babble, books which led to this collaboration.)

People who are interested in an alternative approach, scenario planning, might check out this offering from two of my former colleagues in Shell’s scenario planning team, Rafael Ramirez and Angela Wilkinson: Strategic Reframing (UK) (US). I haven’t yet read the book but I have no doubt about the qualifications of its authors, and the scenario method is a clever approach to an almost impossible future-gazing task.

Finally, this BBC Radio program about economic forecasting is good fun.

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